Related Links
Rasmussen
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics
Real Clear Politics: Head to Head Polls
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html
Pollster
http://www.pollster.com/polls/
Polling Report.com's White House 2008: General Election
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm
Survey USA
http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx
We only went back to January out of fairness to Senator Obama, who was not included in many of the polls before that time. In an ironic twist many of Senator Obama's supporters are now claiming that he is the most electable Democrat, and many of the polls they cite do not include Senator Edwards.
I want to make a quick point about using Real Clear Politics' averages as a means of deciding who is electable and who is not. Because Senator Edwards is included in far fewer polls than the celebrity candidates, when Quinnipiac (whose polls are never kind to Senator Edwards for some reason) or some other pollster give him uncharacteristically bad numbers it skews his average far worse than if the same were to happen to Clinton to Obama. That is why I suggest that those looking to determine which Democrat has the best chance of beating the Republican nominee look at all of the 2008 polling in which all three candidates are included. After doing that it will be no mystery who the candidate most capable of beating the Republican nominee is.
Since 2008 general election polling was first released, whether the other Democrats were John Kerry or Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and no matter whether the Republicans he faced were Jeb Bush and Condi Rice, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani, or Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, Senator Edwards has shown time and time again that he is the most electable Democrat. Senator Obama, and to a lesser extent Senator Clinton, have had a few days in the sun. But if you look at the totality of 2008 general election polling it is obvious that Senator John Edwards is the most electable Democrat.
Ramsussen's polling is sometimes hard to group together because different sources list their numbers in different ways. For this reason we are going to group the numbers together by the month in which they were released. Others might prefer different methods, but this is how we feel we can best present the information. We will update each month as the numbers are released.
We went back to April's Rasmussen numbers (that was the month in which Senator Edwards became the first Democrat to defeat every Republican) because we did not feel that we would have been to break down their numbers into groups of months credibly before that time due to the conflicting available information. It is also important to note that no matter who has had the better favorable/unfavorable number in Rasmussen's polls, Senator Edwards always does the best in the match-ups themselves. Senator Edwards usually has the best favorable/unfavorable number, as he does now. However, Senator Obama has had the better number on occasion, and both have seen their numbers fall dramatically, only to rise again on numerous occasions. Senator Clinton, on the other hand, has for the most part stayed in the 49/49 range she is in now.
It has become crystal clear that if we as Democrats want to make the most out of the opportunity that has presented itself in 2008, we need to nominate and elect John Edwards. He is the only candidate who can win a realignment victory, and substantially grow the Democratic majorities in Congress. Edwards can win a sweeping mandate that can help end the "progressive = unelectable" myth, reclaim the Democratic party from corporate interests and spineless baby-steppers, and allow John Edwards to, in his own words, "really move this agenda". For the first time in a long time the bold progressive leader running the substantive campaign is the most electable Democrat. Let's make the most of this amazing opportunity. Support Senator John Edwards for President in 2008!
Rasmussen - August (so far)
Favorable/Unfavorable
Hillary Clinton - 49/48 - 50/48
Barack Obama - 48/45 - 48/42
John Edwards - 52/42
vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton -
Romney -
Obama -
Romney -
Edwards -
Romney -
Clinton, Obama, Edwards
vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 45%
Thompson - 46%
Obama - 46%
Thompson - 39%
Edwards - 47%
Thompson - 41%
Clinton trails by 1%, Obama leads by 7%, Edwards leads by 6%
vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 45%
Giuliani - 46%
Obama - 44%
Giuliani - 43%
Edwards - 46%
Giuliani - 44%
Clinton trails by 1%, Obama leads by 1%, Edwards leads by 2%
vs. John McCain
Clinton - 45%
McCain - 43%
Obama - 46%
McCain - 40%
Edwards -
McCain -
Clinton leads by 2%, Obama leads by 6%, Edwards
Rasmussen - End of July
Favorable/Unfavorable (at months end)
Hillary Clinton - 52/46
Barack Obama - 53/41
John Edwards - 54/39
vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 46%
Romney - 42%
Obama - 47%
Romney - 38%
Edwards - 52%
Romney - 36%
Clinton leads by 4%, Obama leads by 9%, Edwards leads by 16%
vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 45%
Thompson - 45%
Obama - 46%
Thompson - 40%
Edwards - 50%
Thompson - 39%
Clinton is tied, Obama leads by 6%, and Edwards leads by 11%
vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 44%
Giuliani - 43%
Obama - 47%
Giuliani - 41%
Edwards - 49%
Giuliani - 42%
Clinton leads by 1%, Obama leads by 6%, and Edwards leads by 7%
vs. John McCain
Clinton - 47%
McCain - 38%
Obama - 47%
McCain - 38%
Edwards - 45%
McCain - 38%
Clinton leads by 9%, Obama leads by 9%, and Edwards leads by 7%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 3.50%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 7.50%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 10.25%
Rasmussen - End of June
vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 50%
Romney - 41%
Obama - 49%
Romney - 37%
Edwards - 51%
Romney - 33%
Clinton leads by 9%, Obama leads by 12%, and Edwards leads by 18%
vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 45%
Thompson - 45%
Obama - 43%
Thompson - 41%
Edwards - 50%
Thompson - 41%
Clinton is tied, Obama leads by 2%, and Edwards leads by 9%
vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 44%
Giuliani - 43%
Obama - 41%
Giuliani - 44%
Edwards - 45%
Giuliani - 45%
Clinton leads by 1%, Obama trails by 3%, and Edwards is tied
vs. John McCain
Clinton - 46%
McCain - 42%
Obama - 46%
McCain - 38%
Edwards - 49%
McCain - 36%
Clinton leads by 4%, Obama leads by 8%, and Edwards leads by 13%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 3.50%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 4.75%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 10.00%
Public Policy Polling - June 21, 2007
North Carolina
Clinton - 47%
Romney - 41%
Obama - 47%
Romney - 43%
Edwards - 51%
Romney - 37%
Clinton - 43%
Thompson - 46%
Obama - 44%
Thompson - 45%
Edwards - 47%
Thompson - 43%
Clinton - 43%
Giuliani - 47%
Obama - 42%
Giuliani - 46%
Edwards - 46%
Giuliani - 45%
Clinton - 45%
McCain - 44%
Obama - 44%
McCain - 45%
Edwards - 48%
McCain - 40%
Gallup Poll - June 20th, 2007
Clinton - 53%
Romney - 40%
Obama - 57%
Romney - 36%
Edwards - 61%
Romney - 32%
Clinton - 50%
Giuliani - 46%
Obama - 50%
Giuliani - 45%
Edwards - 50%
Giuliani - 45%
Clinton - 49%
McCain - 46%
Obama - 48%
McCain - 46%
Edwards - 50%
McCain - 44%
Rasmussen - End of May
vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 47%
Romney - 44%
Obama - 52%
Romney - 37%
Edwards - 55%
Romney - 29%
Clinton leads by 3%, Obama leads by 15%, and Edwards leads by 26%
vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 48%
Thompson - 43%
Obama - 47%
Thompson - 44%
Edwards - 51%
Thompson - 38%
Clinton leads by 5%, Obama leads by 3%, and Edwards leads by 13%
vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 45%
Giuliani - 46%
Obama - 39%
Giuliani - 51%
Edwards - 47%
Giuliani - 43%
Clinton trails by 1%, Obama trails by 12%, and Edwards leads by 4%
vs. John McCain
Clinton - 42%
McCain - 48%
Obama - 46%
McCain - 42%
Edwards - 48%
McCain - 41%
Clinton trails by 6%, Obama leads by 4%, and Edwards leads by 7%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of .25%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 2.50%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 12.50%
Newsweek - May 3rd, 2007
Clinton - 57%
Romney - 35%
Obama - 58%
Romney - 29%
Edwards - 64%
Romney - 27%
Clinton - 49%
Giuliani - 46%
Obama - 50%
Giuliani - 43%
Edwards - 50%
Giuliani - 44%
Clinton - 50%
McCain - 44%
Obama - 52%
McCain - 39%
Edwards - 52%
McCain - 42%
Survey USA - May 2nd, 2007
Massachusetts
Clinton - 60%
Thompson - 31%
Obama - 48%
Thompson - 37%
Edwards - 61%
Thompson - 25%
New York
Clinton - 64%
Thompson - 30%
Obama - 50%
Thompson - 38%
Edwards - 59%
Thompson - 29%
California
Clinton - 57%
Thompson - 36%
Obama - 53%
Thompson - 36%
Edwards - 54%
Thompson - 31%
Washington
Clinton - 54%
Thompson - 37%
Obama - 53%
Thompson - 37%
Edwards - 57%
Thompson - 32%
Oregon
Clinton - 48%
Thompson - 41%
Obama - 50%
Thompson - 36%
Edwards - 49%
Thompson - 34%
Wisconsin
Clinton - 46%
Thompson - 43%
Obama - 45%
Thompson - 42%
Edwards - 50%
Thompson - 37%
Minnesota
Clinton - 53%
Thompson -37%
Obama - 48%
Thompson - 40%
Edwards - 56%
Thompson - 32%
New Mexico
Clinton - 51%
Thompson - 41%
Obama - 47%
Thompson - 40%
Edwards - 52%
Thompson - 34%
Iowa
Clinton - 46%
Thompson - 44%
Obama - 51%
Thompson - 41%
Edwards - 58%
Thompson - 35%
Missouri
Clinton - 49%
Thompson - 41%
Obama - 47%
Thompson - 41%
Edwards - 53%
Thompson - 32%
Ohio
Clinton - 53%
Thompson - 38%
Obama - 43%
Thompson - 43%
Edwards - 57%
Thompson - 33%
Virginia
Clinton - 43%
Thompson - 47%
Obama - 40%
Thompson - 46%
Edwards - 48%
Thompson - 38%
Kentucky
Clinton - 53%
Thompson - 40%
Obama - 42%
Thompson - 48%
Edwards - 56%
Thompson - 34%
Texas
Clinton - 49%
Thompson - 43%
Obama - 42%
Thompson - 46%
Edwards - 49%
Thompson - 38%
Kansas
Clinton - 42%
Thompson - 49%
Obama - 46%
Thompson - 42%
Edwards - 50%
Thompson - 37%
Alabama
Clinton - 44%
Thompson - 49%
Obama - 37%
Thompson - 53%
Edwards - 42%
Thompson - 44%
Survey USA - May 2nd, 2007
Ohio
Clinton - 48%
Giuliani - 45%
Obama - 40%
Giuliani - 51%
Edwards - 50%
Giuliani - 42%
Iowa
Clinton - 45%
Giuliani - 48%
Obama - 49%
Giuliani - 44%
Edwards - 54%
Giuliani - 40%
Missouri
Clinton - 45%
Giuliani - 48%
Obama - 42%
Giuliani - 50%
Edwards - 48%
Giuliani - 43%
Wisconsin
Clinton - 44%
Giuliani - 45%
Obama - 43%
Giuliani - 45%
Edwards - 49%
Giuliani - 39%
Minnesota
Clinton - 48%
Giuliani - 45%
Obama - 43%
Giuliani - 49%
Edwards - 49%
Giuliani - 41%
Virginia
Clinton - 44%
Giuliani - 49%
Obama - 38%
Giuliani - 53%
Edwards - 45%
Giuliani - 45%
Kentucky
Clinton - 46%
Giuliani - 48%
Obama - 38%
Giuliani - 54%
Edwards - 47%
Giuliani - 44%
WNBC/Marist - May 1st, 2007
Clinton - 48%
Giuliani - 43%
Obama - 41%
Giuliani - 43%
Edwards - 49%
Giuliani - 43%
Clinton - 47%
McCain - 42%
Obama - 39%
McCain - 46%
Edwards - 49%
McCain - 39%
Rasmussen - End of April
vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 50%
Romney - 41%
Obama - 51%
Romney - 36%
Edwards - 55%
Romney - 29%
Clinton leads by 9%, Obama leads by 15%, and Edwards leads by 26%
vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 47%
Thompson - 44%
Obama - 49%
Thompson - 42%
Edwards - 53%
Thompson - 32%
Clinton leads by 3%, Obama leads by 7%, and Edwards leads by 20%
vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 45%
Giuliani - 45%
Obama - 43%
Giuliani - 44%
Edwards - 49%
Giuliani - 43%
Clinton is tied, Giuliani trails by 1%, and Edwards leads by 6%
vs. John McCain
Clinton - 44%
McCain - 48%
Obama - 48%
McCain - 42%
Edwards - 47%
McCain - 38%
Clinton trails by 4%, Obama leads by 6%, and Edwards leads by 9%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 2.00%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 6.75%
Edwards leads the Republican by an average of 15.25%
Newsweek - March 1st, 2007
Clinton - 53%
Romney - 38%
Obama - 54%
Romney - 34%
Edwards - 58%
Romney - 30%
Clinton - 46%
Giuliani - 47%
Obama - 43%
Giuliani - 48%
Edwards - 45%
Giuliani - 47%
Clinton - 47%
McCain - 46%
Obama - 45%
McCain - 43%
Edwards - 48%
McCain - 43%
Newsweek - January 18th, 2007
Clinton - 47%
Giuliani - 48%
Obama - 47%
Giuliani - 45%
Edwards - 48%
Giuliani - 45%
Clinton - 48%
McCain - 47%
Obama - 46%
McCain - 44%
Edwards - 48%
McCain - 43%
Investor's Business Daily - January 4th, 2007
Clinton - 48%
Romney - 35%
Obama - 43%
Romney - 31%
Edwards - 53%
Romney - 29%
Clinton - 43%
Giuliani - 48%
Obama - 36%
Giuliani - 49%
Edwards - 42%
Giuliani - 47%
Clinton - 41%
McCain - 48%
Obama - 36%
McCain - 48%
Edwards - 43%
McCain - 44%